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新的海洋热含量历史必威官网

客人评论来自劳尔·赞纳(美国)牛津)G.杰克盖比(WHOI)

最近的两篇论文,Zanna et al.(2019)(以下简称ZKGIH19)和Gebbie & Huybers (2019)(以下简称GH19)independently reconstructed ocean 必威官网heat content (OHC) changes prior to the instrumentally-based records (which start ~1950).这两篇论文的目标(和方法)有很大不同——ZKGIH19调查了海洋变暖和热海平面上升的区域模式,虽然GH19分析了深海的长期记忆,但它们都有着相同的联系。key questions气候强迫和反应。

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工具书类

  1. L.ZannaS.KhatiwalaJ.M.格雷戈瑞J.Ison,P.Heimbach,“历史海洋蓄热和运输的全球重建”,必威官网国家科学院学报,卷。116,聚丙烯。1126—1131,2019。http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808838115
  2. G.格比P.Huybers"The Little Ice Age and 20th-century deep Pacific cooling",科学类,卷。363,聚丙烯。70-74,2019。http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aar8413

气候变化和极端夏季天气事件——未来仍在我们手中


2018年夏季发生了前所未有的极端天气事件,从日本的洪水中,北美洲创纪录的热浪,必威官网欧洲和亚洲,威胁到希腊甚至北极部分地区的野火。美国西部必威官网的热和干旱在史上最严重的加州野火中达到顶峰。This is the face of climate change,我当时说.

这里与气候变化的一些联系非常直接。One of thesimplest relationships在所有的大气科学中,都告诉我们,随着温度的升高,大气中的含水量成倍增加。增加的水分意味着短时间内可能会有更多的降雨,即worse floods.The same thermodynamic relationship,ironically,also explains why soils evaporate exponentially more moisture as ground temperatures increase,favoring more extreme drought in many regions.Summer 必威官网heat waves increase in frequency and intensity with even modest (e.g.由于行为当你移动曲线的中心时,正的“尾巴”的钟形曲线,即使是很小的量。把极端的高温和干旱结合起来,你会必威官网变得更强大,faster-spreading wildfires.这不是火箭科学。

But there is more to the story.Because what made these events so devastating was not just the extreme nature of the meteorological episodes but their persistence.当一个低压中心一次在同一地点停下来并逗留几天时,you get record accumulation of rainfall and unprecedented flooding.That's what happened with飓风哈维last year and佛罗伦萨飓风this year.It is also what happened with the日本洪水今年夏天早些时候记录夏季降雨量我们在宾夕法尼亚州度过了这个夏天。相反地,when a high-pressure center stalls over the same location,就像加州发生的那样,Europe,去年夏天,亚洲甚至进入了欧洲北极,你得到了创纪录的热量,必威官网干旱和野火。

Scientists such as Jennifer Francis有联系气候变化导致极端天气事件增多,especially during the winter season when the jet stream and "polar vortex" are relatively strong and energetic.北半球急流的存在是由于中纬度(中心在45N左右)暖赤道和冷北极之间的温度差异很大。由于冰的融化和其他加剧极地变暖的因素,北极的变暖速度比地球其他地方快,that contrast is decreasing and the喷射流变慢了.Just like a river traveling over gently sloping territory tends to exhibit wide meanders as it snakes its way toward the ocean,so too do the eastward-migrating wiggles in the jet stream (known as Rossby waves) tend to get larger in amplitude when the temperature contrast decreases.The larger the wiggles in the jet stream the more extreme the weather,其峰值对应于表面的高压,波谷对应于表面的低压。The slower the jet stream,the longer these extremes in weather linger in the same locations,给了我们更多持久的极端天气。

此外,在夏天还会发生其他事情,当极地温度对比度特别弱时。The atmosphere can behave like a "wave guide",将较短波长的罗斯比波(在北半球周围的一个完整回路中可容纳6至8个全波长的波)限制在以中纬度为中心的相对较窄纬度范围内,preventing them from radiating energy away toward lower and higher latitudes.这使得在这个波长范围内的一般弱扰动通过共振的物理过程而增强,在次大陆尺度上产生非常大的峰谷,即unusually extreme regional weather anomalies.这种现象被称为准共振放大或“qra”,和(见下图)。

近几十年来,许多最具破坏性的极端夏季天气事件都与QRA有关。包括2003年的欧洲热浪,必威官网the 2010 Russian 必威官网heatwave and wildfires and Pakistan floods (see below),以及2011年德克萨斯州/俄克拉荷马州干旱。最近的例子包括2013年欧洲洪水,the 2015 California wildfires,2016年阿尔伯塔省的野火的确,我们在去年夏天目睹了前所未有的一系列极端夏季天气事件。

随着时间的推移,这些事件频率的增加被视为与北极放大指数(北极和北半球其他地区变暖的差异)相一致。暗示有联系(见下图)。

去年,我们(我和包括RealClimate同事Stefan Rahmstorf在内的一组合作者)发表了文章in the自然journal科学报告 证明这一点the same pattern of amplified Arctic warming ("Arctic Amplification") that is slowing down the jet stream is indeed also increasing the frequency of QRA episodes.That means regional weather extremes that persist longer during summer when the jet stream is already at its weakest.基于对气候观测和历史气候模拟的分析,we concluded that the "signal" of human influence on QRA has likely emerged from the "noise" of natural variability over the past decade and a half.2018夏天,我会说,那个信号不再微妙了。It played out in real time on our television screens and newspaper headlines in the form of an unprecedented hemisphere-wide pattern of extreme floods,旱灾,必威官网热浪和野火。

在一个后续文章just published in the AAAS journalScience Advances,我们使用最先进的气候模型模拟来研究未来的QRA预测。It is important to note that that one cannot directly analyze QRA behavior in a climate model simulation for technical reasons.Most climate models are run at grid resolutions of a degree in latitude or more.描述罗斯比波qra行为的物理学在气候模型方面面临着严峻的挑战,因为它涉及到喷气流风相对于纬度的二阶数学导数。当从网格字段计算一个数值一阶导数时,误差会急剧增加,而当计算二阶导数时,误差会更大。Our calculations show that the critical term mentioned above suffers from an average climate model error of more than 300% relative to observations.相比之下,the average error of the models is less than a percent when it comes to latitudinal temperature averages and still only betway体育手机版about 30% when it comes to the latitudinal derivative of temperature.

That last quantity is especially relevant because QRA events已被展示to have a well-defined signature in terms of the latitudinal variation in temperature in the lower atmosphere.通过被称为热风,the magnitude of the jet stream winds is in fact largely determined by the average of that quantity over the lower atmosphere.And as we have seen above,this quantity is well captured by the models (in large part because the change in temperature with latitude and how it responds to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations depends on physics that are well understood and well represented by the climate models).

这些发现,incidentally have broader implications.首先,用于评估当前极端天气事件可归因于气候变化的程度的基于气候模型的研究可能低估了气候变化的影响。One model-based study for example建议climate change only doubled the likelihood of the extreme European 必威官网heat wave this summer.正如我当时发表了评论,这个估计可能太低了,因为它不能解释我们碰巧知道的角色,在这种情况下,在那个项目中,QRA发挥了作用。Similarly,climate models used to project future changes in extreme weather behavior likely underestimate the impact that future climate changes could have on the incidence of persistent summer weather extremes like those we witnessed this past summer.

那么,我们的研究对未来有什么看法呢?betway体育手机版We find that the incidence of QRA events would likely continue to increase at the same rate it has in recent decades if we continue to simply add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.但也有一个问题:未来用于预测未来气候的排放情景还必须考虑除温室气体以外的其他因素。Historically,例如,使用早于清洁空气法案的旧煤炭技术,会产生二氧化硫气体,这些气体会逸出到大气中,在那里与其他大气成分发生反应,形成所谓的气溶胶。

这些气溶胶在美国引起酸雨和其他环境问题。before factories in the 1970s were required to install "scrubbers" to remove the sulphur dioxide before it leaves factory smokestacks.这些气溶胶也反射入射的阳光,因此在工业中纬度地区产生了冷却作用。Some countries,like China,仍在从事老年人,更脏的燃煤形式。If we continue with business-as-usual burning of fossil fuels,但是像中国这样的国家为了避免空气污染而向更现代的“清洁”燃煤过渡,在接下来的半个世纪里,我们很可能会看到气溶胶的大量减少。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的“RCP 8.5”方案基本上作出了这样的假设,一个“照常经营”的未来排放情景,导致二氧化碳浓度比工业前水平(280份/百万)增加了两倍多,到本世纪末,全球变暖约为4-5摄氏度(7-9华氏度)。

因此,the projected disappearance of cooling aerosols in the decades ahead produces an especially large amount of warming in middle-latitudes in summer (when there is the most incoming sunlight to begin with,而且,因此,最能反射回太空的阳光)。Averaged across the various IPCC climate models there is even more warming in mid-latitudes than in the Arctic—in other words,与北极放大相反,即Arctic De-amplification (see Figure below).在气溶胶消失后的世纪后期,温室效应再次占主导地位,我们再次看到qra事件的增加。

所以,is there any hope to avoid future summers like the summer of 2018?大概不会。但在我们迅速远离化石燃料并将温室气体浓度稳定在450百万分之一以下的情况下,giving us a roughly 50% chance of averting 2C/3.6F planetary warming (the so-called "RCP 2.6" IPCC scenario) we find that the frequency of QRA events remains roughly constant at current levels.

虽然我们将来可能还要面对更多的夏天,比如2018年,我们可能会阻止持续的夏季极端天气进一步加剧。换言之,当面临危险和破坏性的极端夏季天气时,我们仍然掌握着未来。从化石燃料到可再生能源的快速转变只是我们意志力的问题。

打破气候变化的局面

I have an op-ed in the New York Times this week:

科学家如何破译气候变化的案例
The biggest crime scene on the planet is the planet.我们知道地球正在变暖,但是谁或是什么导致了这一切?
Emilia Miękisz

你们中的许多人会从之前的现实气候片段中认识到这个比喻。(这是最早的一个I think,from 2007),事实上,工作名称是“CSI:行星地球”。从多个来源得出了对近期气候趋势归因的过程描述和结论。(在这里在这里等)以及表面温度趋势的数据可视化彭博新闻.

There have been many comments betway体育手机版about this on Twitter – most appreciative,一些期待,还有一些有趣的。预期的批评来自那些似乎根本没有读过这篇文章的人(“气候以前已经改变了!”—一项无人争议的主张,and a lot of pointless counter-arguments by assertion.在更有趣的评论主题中,是由泰德·诺德豪斯发起的

我的回答基本上是,这可能是他的老帽子(也许这里有很多读者)。但是,我经常感到惊讶的是,有那么多人——甚至是那些关注气候的人——不知道我们是如何做归因的,也不知道IPCC声明背后的科学是多么坚实。betway体育手机版从许多评论来看,it certainly isn't the case that these pieces are only read by the already convinced.But asking how many people are helped to be persuaded by articles like this is a valid question,and I don't really know the answer.有人吗?

工业前人为二氧化碳排放量:多大?

Filed under: — mike @ 11 October 2018

来宾文章作者William Ruddiman

鲁迪曼(2003)出版15年后,早期的人为假设仍然存在争议,许多学科的相关证据不断涌现。Recent findings summarized here lend support to the claim that greenhouse-gas emissions from early agriculture (before 1850) were large enough to alter atmospheric composition and global climate substantially.

海洋同位素阶段(MIS)19是与当前MIS 1间冰期最接近的轨道模拟(Tzedakis等人,2012),进动(εsinω)变化很小,sin和倾角几乎同步(图1a,b)。MIS 11 was once claimed to be the closest MIS 1 analog (for example,布洛克和斯托克,2006),but that claim is now rejected because obliquity and precession peaks in MIS 11 were far offset.


图1 MIS19期间(a)倾角和(b)进动(εsinω)趋势的比较,(绿色)MIS11 (black) and MIS1 (red).Based on Tzedakis et al.(2012).(c) CO2 trends during MIS19 (black) and MIS1 (red).MIS 19的二氧化碳数据来自DOME C(Bereiter等人2015).MIS 1的二氧化碳数据来自Law Dome(Macfarling Meure等人2006)和Dome C(Monnin等人2001,2004)MIS1。

With MIS 11 eliminated as an analog,重点是MIS 19。MIS 1和MIS 19早期的CO2信号(图1c)达到几乎相同的峰值270和269 ppm,此后,MIS 1值下降了4000年,但随后上升了20 ppm,达到工业前280-285 ppm。In contrast,MIS 19二氧化碳趋势持续下降超过10000年,到目前相当于245-250 ppm。这一数值与自然全新世早期人类假说中提出的240-245 ppm的水平一致(没有人为叠印)。两次间冰期之间的35 ppm差异接近于Ruddiman(2003)推断的40 ppm全新世异常。

Vavrus等人对MIS 19时间(相当于今天)的GCM模拟。(2018年)表明,低二氧化碳值将导致加拿大群岛和巴芬岛(面积约为格陵兰大小)全年积雪(预示着初期冰川作用)。as well as other Arctic regions (see also Ganopolski et al.,2014)。

Ruddiman (2003) estimated pre-industrial carbon emissions of 300-320 Gt,based on a back-of-the-envelope compilation of the incomplete forest clearance histories then available (Table 1).[一吨是十亿吨]。That estimate was for a while rejected as too high by a factor of 5 to 10 (Joos et al.,2004;Pongratz et al.,2008;斯托克等人,2011。However,卡普兰等人。(2011)发现,这些估计值有偏差,因为它们假定早期人均清除量比实际历史数据显示的大量清除量小得多。这些估计数还忽略了已清理的未积极使用农业的地区,但还没有重新造林。Adjusting for these factors,卡普兰及其同事估计工业前排放量为343gtc。

厄尔布等。(2017年)如果没有人类活动(910 GTC),目前地球潜在自然植被中储存的碳量的平均估计数为7(与今天实际储存的460 GTC碳量相比)。They attributed the difference of 450 GtC to cumulative vegetation removal by humans (mostly deforestation).随着工业时代出现了约140 GTC的通关,这使得估计310 GTC作为总清除和排放到大气在前工业时代。In a similar analysis,Lorenz和Lal(2018年)估计工业前碳排放量“高达”357 gtc。

其他学科的研究已经开始添加关于早期清除的直接地面真相证据。betway体育手机版数百个欧洲湖心的花粉分析(Fyfe等人,2014;罗伯茨等,2018) show that forest vegetation began to decrease after 6000 years ago and reached near-modern levels before the start of the industrial era (Fig.2)。在中国,李等编纂了50000多个考古遗址。(2009)和霍斯纳等人(2016)显示,从7000年前开始,在以前的森林地区,农业定居点的数量大幅增加。这些广泛的汇编支持上述对早期人类大清除和碳排放量的估计。


Figure 2.Evidence of early forest clearance in Europe.(a)欧洲花粉数据库中的核心位置。Cores used for pollen summary in B are shown in red (Fyfe et al.,2015).(b)森林变化,打开,半开放(混合森林和开放)植被绘制为“假生物群落”总和。

随着这一广泛的多学科证据的出现,一些科学家继续拒绝早期的人为假设。大多数的反对意见是基于地球化学指数(δ13CO2),该指数是在冰芯中的气泡中所含的二氧化碳中测得的。δ13co2指数显示陆地上富含12c的陆地碳和海洋中13c的中性碳之间的相对平衡。在过去的7000年中,大气二氧化碳的13摄氏度小幅度减少被解释为这段时间内,富含12摄氏度的陆地碳的最小输入量(Broecker和Stocker,2006;Elsig et al.,2009)。In a July 20,2018 Scienceonline.org帖子,Jeff Severinghaus估计早期人类对观测到的二氧化碳上升的贡献为“最多1至2 ppm”,or just 5-10% of the recent estimates reviewed in Table 1.

其他科学家(Stocker等人,2018;Ruddiman et al.,2016) have pointed out that the δ13CO2 index cannot be used to isolate the amount of deforestation carbon unless all significant carbon sources and sinks are well constrained.The compilation by Yu (2011) indicating that ~300 Gt of terrestrial (12C-rich) carbon were buried in boreal peats during the last 7000 years shows that this constraint had not been satisfied in previous studies.在过去的7000年中,将~300 gtc埋藏在北方泥炭中需要平衡超过300 gtc的陆地碳排放。上述讨论总结了工业前毁林可以填补这一赤字的证据。即使现在,然而,carbon exchanges (whether sources or sinks) in non-peat permafrost areas and in river floodplains and deltas during the last 7000 years remain poorly known.

科学家们试图对这一仍在进行中的争论做出决定,现在可以权衡广泛的多学科证据,证明早期betway体育手机版森林大面积砍伐,而不是依赖于迄今为止约束不佳的δ13CO2指数。

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TzedakisP.C.J.e.T查内尔d.a.HodellH.f.Kleiven,L.K.Skinner(2012)Determining the length of the current interglacial.自然地球科学5,138~141。

瓦夫勒斯S.J.,f.他,J.e.KutzbachW.f.拉迪曼P.C.Tzedakis (2018),海洋同位素19期的冰期开始:一个轨道模拟
natural Holocene.Nature Scientific Reports 81,doi:10.1038/s41598-018-28419-5。

汉森作证30年后

Filed under: — gavin @ 21 June 2018

"The greenhouse effect is here."
- Jim Hansen,23rd June 1988,参议院证词

The first transient climate projections using GCMs are 30 years old this year,他们站得非常好。

We've looked at the skill in theHansen et al (1988)(pdf)之前的模拟(back in 2008)and we said at the time that the simulations were skillful and that differences from observations would be clearer with a decade or two's more data.好,又过了十年!

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工具书类

  1. J.汉森一。Funga.Lacisd.Rind,S.Lebedeff,R.Ruedy,G.罗素P.Stone,“戈达德空间研究所三维模型预测的全球气候变化”,Journal of Geophysical Research,卷。93,聚丙烯。9341,1988.http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/JD093iD08p09341

The Alsup Aftermath

来自Climate Science tutorial上个月所有内容都已发布(链接如下)and Myles Allen (the first presenter for the plaintiffs) gives his impression of the events.
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Alsup asks for answers

你们中有些人可能读过betway体育手机版诉讼由多个直辖市(包括旧金山和奥克兰)对主要石油公司造成的损害(主要与海平面上升有关)由人为气候变化引起。关于地位的法律细节,管辖权,等。都很有趣@ColumbiaClimatefor those details),但有些独特,法官(威廉·阿尔苏普)要求提供一个关于气候科学的教程(原告和被告提供2小时的证据)。此外,he has posted a八个问题列表that he'd like the teams to answer.

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气候敏感性估计和校正

你需要小心根据观测推断气候敏感性。

本周有两个气候敏感性的故事——都与你在从观测数据推断约束条件之前需要多么小心有关。(你可以复习一下背景和定义在这里)两种情况——在自然(that I led) and a new paper fromProistosescu and Huybers (2017)– examine basic assumptions underlying previously published estimates of climate sensitivity and find them wanting.

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工具书类

  1. C.ProistosescuP.J.Huybers“慢气候模式协调历史和基于模型的气候敏感性估计”,Science Advances,卷。三,聚丙烯。E1608921,2017.http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciav1602821

Why global emissions must peak by 2020

Filed under: -Stefan@2017年6月2日

(作者:Stefan Rahmstorf和Anders Levermann)

在具有里程碑意义的巴黎气候协定中,世界各国已承诺“将全球平均气温上升保持在工业前水平2°C以下,并努力将气温上升限制在工业前水平1.5°C以上”。这一目标被认为是必要的,以避免对人类造成无法估量的风险,and it is feasible – but realistically only if global emissions peak by the year 2020 at the latest.

首先,让我们讨论一下保持低于2°C的全球变暖的重要性,and as close to 1.5°C as possible.世界气象组织气候报告[I]过去一年,全球气温和海平面不断上升,reaching record highs once again in 2016.全球海冰覆盖率创下历史新低,格陵兰岛和南极洲的山脉冰川和巨大的冰原正在加速质量损失。越来越多的人正遭受越来越多的,而且往往是前所未有的极端天气事件的折磨。[ii],无论是伤亡还是经济损失。这是自19世纪末以来全球变暖约1°C后的情况。betway体育手机版世纪。More »

朱迪·柯里的归因非论据

Filed under: -加文,2017年4月18日

Following on from the ‘interesting' House Science Committee hearing two weeks ago,there was an excellent rebuttal curated by气候反馈多数证人的不支持的和经常误导性的主张。作为回应,朱迪·柯里(又一次)declared herself unconvinced有证据表明人类对最近气候变化的主导作用。Andas beforeshe fails to give any quantitative argument to support her contention that human drivers are not the dominant cause of recent trends.

Her reasoning consists of a small number of plausible sounding,but ultimately unconvincing issues that are nonetheless worth diving into.She summarizes her claims in the以下注释:

…他们使用的模型是针对感兴趣的时期调整的,which should disqualify them from be used in attribution study for the same period (circular reasoning,而这一切)。归因研究没有考虑到海洋中的大的多十年(和更长的)振荡,which have been estimated to account for 20% to 40% to 50% to 100% of the recent warming.这些模型无法解释太阳的间接影响,而太阳的间接影响被认为是重要的。最后,the CMIP5 climate models used values of aerosol forcing that are now thought to be far too large.

这些说法要么是错误的,要么根本没有她所说的含义。我们再检查一遍。

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