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让我们检查一下你的体温

The underlying mission of my job is to safeguard lives and property through climate change adaptation based on science.In other words,to help society to prepare itself for risks connected with more extreme rainfall and temperatures.

对很多人来说,"climate" may seem to be an abstract concept.I have had many conversations betway体育手机版about climate,然后意识到人们通常有不同的解释。In my mind,气候是一样的天气统计(which I realise can be quite abstract to many).

To avoid miscommunication,当我讨论气候时,我想确保我们在同一个页面上。如果我谈论更熟悉和具体的方面,也许会有所帮助,betway体育手机版such as the temperature,降雨量,snow,or wind?

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Labels for climate data

Filed under: — rasmus @ 24 April 2014

元数据无花果 “这些结果很奇怪”,我的同事告诉我。He analysed some of the recent climate model results from an experiment known by the cryptic name ‘CMIP5‘.结果证明结果是好的,but we had made an error when reading and processing the model output.The particular climate model that initially gave the strange results had used a different calendar set-up to the previous models we had examined.

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“有影响的错误”附录

Filed under: — group @ 27 April 2006

1.什么是“伪代理”,为什么它们有用?

Our only information from before the "instrumental period" (the period from which we have systematic measurements with thermometers,从1850年开始,气候的代表记录(如树木年轮,ice cores,corals,沉积物,花粉等)。Therefore it is important to know what the available kind and distribution of proxy records can tell us betway体育手机版about quantities that we care about (like changes in the average temperature of the northern hemisphere).一个典型的问题是:对于北半球的温度,人们可以预期的精度是多少?给定代理的可用数量和空间分布?How much uncertainty arises from the non-climatic ‘noise' in these records?组合代理的不同方法如何比较?And so on…

如果有足够长的良好仪器数据,then we would be able to answer these questions simply by comparing measurements with proxy records.但是仪器记录很短——毕竟这是我们必须依赖代理的主要原因。
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On Yet Another False Claim by McIntyre and McKitrick

Filed under: — mike @ 6 January 2005

McIntyre and McKitrick (MM),in one of their manyfalse claims regarding the Mann et al (MBH98) temperature reconstruction,断言曲棍球棒重建的形状是“非中心”的产物。主成分分析convention used by MBH98 in representing the North American International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) data series.Wealready demonstrated the falsehood of this assertion hereby showing (a) that the hockey stick pattern emerges using either the MM (centered) or MBH98 (non-centered) PCA conventions,但由于不适当地应用了用于确定保留的主要成分(PC)数量的选择规则,被MM审查,(b)使用与mm(居中)公约保持一致的PC系列(5)的正确数量保留了特征“曲棍球棒”模式作为一个重要的预测因素,得到与MBH98基本相同的温度重建,最后More »

Rutherford et al 2005 highlights

Filed under: -Mike@2004年11月22日

The claims of McIntyre and McKitrick regarding the Mann et al (1998) temperature reconstruction have recently been discredited by the following peer-reviewed article to appear in theAmerican Meteorological Societyjournal,“Journal of Climate“:

Rutherford,S.,Mann,M.E.,奥斯本T.J.,布拉德利R.S.BriffaK.R.,休斯M.K.琼斯,P.D.Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Methodology,Predictor Network,Target Season and Target DomainJournal of Climate,在出版社(2005)。

本文的主要摘录如下:More »

PCA details

Filed under: -Mike@2004年11月22日

PCA of the 70 North American ITRDB Tree-ring Proxy Series used by Mann et al (1998)

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